Shaping Labour Market Trends

D. Demographic Change

Global market competition is increasing, technologies are advancing rapidly, dissemination of information is growing at a rapid pace and the demand for knowledge management and skilled labour is rising. At the same time, Canada's birth rate is declining and the traditional labour supply is shrinking.

Demographics refers to the physical characteristics of a population, such as age, sex, marital status, family size, education, geographic location and occupation. These are the key factors in shaping a country's economic life. The growth and structure of the population create the demand for goods and services within a given environment, which creates the demand for workers to supply the goods and services. Demographics also determine the number of people available for work and the skills they bring to the workplace.

Changing demographics affect the labour market by:

• Shaping employment opportunities. Demographic characteristics help shape the demand for certain occupations that will provide the population with products and services. (In Canada, a large aging population increases the demand for health care and leisure occupations and different age groups create different employment opportunities depending on how they focus their spending - leisure, products, travel, business services.)
• Shaping the composition of the work force. Demographics shape the composition (e.g., age and ethnic distribution) of the labour force. (A decrease in the youth population can lead to an influx of retirees to do typical youth jobs, for example, in fast food establishments. Similarly, a lack of skilled labourers can result in an increase of skilled immigrants).

The effects of demographics on the demand for workers and the supply of workers is demonstrated in Figure 3.

Aging: A Major Canadian Demographic Trend Aging of the population has major long-term implications on industrial and occupational labour markets. The different spending patterns of an aging population result in differing demands for labour. Aging populations lead to shifts in government spending patterns (e.g. different allocation of dollars to health and education). Aging of the labour force brings about an increase in occupational retirements, which affects the demand structure for workers.

Demographics and the 21st Century Workplace Trends (Based on a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.*) Elder care. Some companies may offer on-site, non-medical elder care facilities. Employees may bring their parents to these facilities, just as children are brought to company-operated day care centres. The cost of such centres will be offset by increased employee productivity and lowering of absenteeism. Teenagers may assist the elderly who stay at home. Entrepreneurial nanny services will evolve to "granny" services, operated by, and employing, young people to perform duties for the elderly, such as running errands and assisting with household chores. New workplace problem isolation. Employees will be increasingly isolated. E-mail and voice mail will replace face-to-face exchanges. The resulting decline in social skills may hinder team problem solving and threaten productivity. Organizations will address this through such methods as on-site counselling and the development of social programs for employees. Challenger et al. suggest that a new job category may well result: director of socialization. Stronger push for rights for individuals with a disability. As the workplace ages, more employees at all levels will have physical disabilities, and more lawsuits charging discrimination will result. Seminars aimed at informing and educating employees about disabilities will be mandatory in an attempt at consciousness-raising. Wanted: older managers with previous long-term tenure. To heal the wounds left by job cuts and reorganizations, companies will seek older managerial job candidates. They may be called upon to develop policies to help boost employee morale and commitment to the firm and, thus, enhance profits. Next: retiree entrepreneurs. A large wave of retiree entrepreneurs will set up their own businesses. They will provide a wide range of services, and may hire other retirees to work for them establishing "grey businesses." *Summarized on the Web site (May, 2000) of the International Personnel Management Association (IPMA), a non-profit organization serving the public sector human resources community through education, research and advocacy. Contact Alexandria, VA-based IPMA at (703) 549-7100, ipma@ipma-hr.org or http://www.ipma-hr.org