Work in the New Economy

Occupational Forecasting

Perhaps the greatest confusion over such top job lists lies between the numbers for projected job openings and projected growth rates in employment requirements.

Understanding this difference will go a long way in explaining to clients why there are, and will continue to be, more job openings for secretaries, for example, than for engineers, even though clerical work is threatened by technology and the high-tech sector has an above-average growth rate in employment requirements. See the text box Job Openings versus Growth in Employment Requirements - What the Numbers Mean for an explanation of the difference.

Table 7: Projected "Top Jobs" in the
Canadian Economy, 1999 - 2004

COPS Projections

Newspaper articles or books, such as Job Futures, that report an actual number or percentage growth for occupational projections usually use the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) produced by Human Resources Development Canada. The projections, or outlooks, are based on data collected and analyzed through COPS, a labour supply-and-demand information and data bank. Caution is recommended when interpreting these projections because they cannot account for all the possible new or changing factors that could come into play in the future and affect predicted outcomes. However, COPS predictions are enhanced by the insights of industry experts, and these are included in the narrative text, including any strong disagreement with the COPS projections.

Job Openings versus Growth in Employment Requirements - What the Numbers Mean Job Openings What produces jobs? Economic growth is the engine that powers the expansion of many job fields. The other producer of jobs is the need to replace workers who retire, die, return to school or return to the household (attrition), or change jobs (turnover). Growth and replacement together influence the future job picture. Increases in the total number of job openings projected by COPS is based on the two factors mentioned above: jobs created from economic growth (new jobs); and jobs resulting from replacement needs (attrition). In many cases, there will be as many or more job openings due to replacement needs than to economic growth. This means that even occupational fields that are not growing or are projected to experience job losses, can still produce job openings because of attrition. Growth in Employment Requirements The projected growth of an occupation from COPS is usually reported as an average annual percent change, with an occupation described as having an above or below average growth in employment requirements. This growth rate refers to new job creation only and does not take into account replacement jobs (attrition). However, because percentage increases in occupations are, in large part, determined by the size of the existing work force in that field, high or above average growth in employment requirements in a small occupation doesn't necessarily mean the growing field will offer a large number of newly created jobs. This is the paradox of the job market in the "new economy." Despite the higher than average projected growth for knowledge workers such as engineers, the number of jobs produced by these small fields will be much lower than the low-tech jobs in sales and service. What this means is that large occupational fields with below average growth can still produce more job openings than small occupational fields with high growth. While the increase in the total number of job openings (new job creation and attrition) is probably the most useful number for clients, they should be aware that a high growth in employment requirements (new job creation only) is often a signal of new emerging fields that will sustain growth for many years.

Examples of projected job openings and growth in employment requirements are illustrated in figures 9 to 13.

Figure 9 shows the composition of projected growth in employment requirements (newly created jobs) in different sectors as a percentage of the total projected for all sectors. The largest increase is in sales and service at 31%, while the two sectors contributing the least to the total are mining/ forestry at 2% and Art/Recreation/Sport at 3%.

These employment projections are an average for the whole of Canada and are good for a basic idea of where national employment requirements may be going. However, the labour market situation is usually different for each province or for different geographical regions. Clients will be interested in the projections for their own province or territory, or maybe for an area to which they are planning to relocate.

Projected Job Openings: Examples

The COPS provincial partners use the COPS model to develop occupational projections at the provincial level. figures 10 to 13 provide examples for several provinces.

Figure 13 is a graph representing projected total job openings for British Columbia (i.e., new jobs created and replacement jobs through attrition), to the year 2008. Note that within sales and service, jobs offering the greatest number of openings are primarily entry level. Many require only limited education and training beyond high school.

figures 10a and b show the total number of projected job openings in a sampling of occupations in business and administration for Quebec and Saskatchewan. It can be useful to compare provincial projections to see whether opportunities are greater in a different location. Note the large number of openings for secretaries, recorders and transcriptionists. Also note that in this graph there is no way of seeing how many projected openings come from new job creation and how many come from attrition.

figures 11a and b give one more piece of information: the number of total job openings broken down to show how many are from attrition and how many are from new job creation. For illustration purposes, some occupations in trades and transport were chosen to create figures 11a and b. Note that there are more jobs through attrition in almost every occupation listed in New Brunswick and Manitoba. Projected job openings for construction millwrights, tailors and dressmakers, and heavy equipment operators are very similar in both provinces. It is also interesting to note that although there is a projected loss of a number of jobs in tailors and dressmaking in Manitoba, there is still a projected number of job openings through attrition (replacement will be needed for some of the remaining workers).

Growth in Employment Requirements: Examples

Growth in employment requirements is new job creation only - attrition is not included. Occupations for figures 12a and b were chosen to make a very important point regarding forecasting of LMI: a high rate of employment requirements doesn't necessarily mean high numbers of job openings. Note in Figure 12a, the occupational group with the highest projected growth in employment requirements (new jobs to be created) is producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations. It has a projected growth rate of 27.8%. This is 2,389 new jobs (Figure 12b). Now look at motor vehicle mechanics, technicians and mechanical repairers; and financial auditors and accountants in Figure 12a. These occupational groups have projected growth in employment requirements of 11.9% and 7.14% respectively. However, their projected number of new jobs created (Figure 12b) is more than the top growth-rated occupational group, producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations.

Also note occupations, such as secretaries, show a projected minus growth rate. This does not give the whole picture because there will be job openings from attrition that are not shown in this particular graph. Look back to Figure 10a to Quebec's projected number of job openings for secretaries: 21,559. This figure includes attrition. These two graphs demonstrate the importance of understanding the data being presented.