Work in the New Economy

Industry Forecasting

So far, only occupational projections have been considered. COPS also provides industry employment projections. Having researched what occupations offer the greatest number of job openings, the next question is where to find such jobs.

When looking at employment requirements for an industry, all occupations required for that industry to function are included. For instance, projected growth for the education sector would be the combined, expected openings for teachers, secretaries, teaching assistants, principals, media technicians, computer technicians and technologists, public affairs personnel, auditors, bookkeepers, schoolyard landscapers, maintenance engineers, etc.

When looking at projected employment for occupations, the number represents job openings for that occupation across all industries. For instance, projected growth for maintenance engineers means expected openings in educational facilities, government buildings, manufacturing companies, retail stores, warehouses, aerospace companies, churches, etc.

But what if the main industries of employment for a given occupation have decreasing employment requirements? Then, it might be useful to look at other industries which are expanding, to see if there are employment opportunities for the occupation of interest. For instance, if television is a main source of employment for film editors and job losses are projected for that industry, look for digital editing opportunities in Internet video clips or in training videos in the business services industry. Job Futures gives a projected outlook for job opportunities for the occupation - a total across all industries - and also indicates the main industries of employment for the occupations it profiles.

figures 14 and 15 show COPS projected industry growth in employment requirements by percent and by actual number of job openings for 1999 to 2004. Figure 14 demonstrates that personal services, construction and business services are the industries with the greatest projected percentage growth in employment requirements in Canada. In other words, employment requirements in these industries will have the largest percentage growth relative to total number of workers in that field. This does not mean they will necessarily have the largest number of total job openings. Compare to Figure 15 which shows projected numbers of actual job openings, placing trade (wholesale and retail) and manufacturing at the top.

Can an industry demonstrate high growth in its trade and commerce and yet have decreasing employment requirements? Innovation in technology can be a two-edged sword. To go back to the service sector as an example, telecommunications is a growing industry in terms of trade and commerce but employment requirements are expected to decrease due to technology reducing the human workload.

Converting projected employment requirement growth rates into the actual number of future job openings shows there will be many more job openings in the low-skilled, traditional services (e.g., food and accommodation) and non-market (e.g., home care) sectors, than in the better paying high-skilled jobs in producer services (e.g., engineering or computer software firms).

Implications for Career Decision Making

• Clients/students will expect immediate, regional or local information (real-time, customized service for their needs). Practitioners can respond to this demand by learning about and by sharing this information with their clients:
  • sources of such specific information; and
  • strategies for accessing and evaluating the information.
• To help clients make use of LMI for successful career and job searching plans, practitioners will need to be able to teach clients how to understand and assess the importance of information, such as growth rates and job openings for occupations and for industries.
  • Not all fast-growing occupations offer a large number of job openings.
  • There should be plenty of employment opportunities from attrition in large occupational fields that also experience above average growth, such as tourism occupations, especially cooks and restaurant managers.
  • Small occupational fields that experience above average growth, such as chemical engineers, cable TV maintenance workers or midwives/practitioners of natural healing, will produce comparatively fewer jobs.
  • The rate of retirement, which contributes to job openings by attrition, is different across industries, so the average age of workers in an industry can provide planning information for targeting a job search. Job Futures and the sector councils provide this information.
• When looking at projected growth rates, practitioners need to know whether the planning need of the client or student is immediate or future. Some precautions to take when using projected data: How far does it go into the future? Will school or training times affect the impact of the projections? What regulations, laws, trends, economic issues might change the projection? What contingency plan does the client have for unexpected twists in the labour market? Where can a client get real life information to compare with the statistical projections?
• The number of job openings is and will be, greatest in the service sector. Some points to remember:
  • Jobs in the service sector are typically high skilled (secure, high-paid jobs) or low skilled (insecure, low paid jobs). There are fewer middle-level skill jobs in the service sector than in the goods sector.
  • While the greatest number of job openings will be for so-called lower-skilled workers, the level of literacy and other skills required of these workers is gradually increasing, and upgrading or retraining is an assumed consideration.
• The jobs available to those with no more than a high school education are entry level and limited in scope, job security and earnings. However, these jobs provide a large number of openings for such workers and, with further experience and training, more opportunities are possible. See Table 9 for a provincial example of job openings for those with high school or less (British Columbia).
• Students and workers need to understand occupational mobility and to be aware of a variety of career paths. Sample career paths for the tourism industry and for lower-skilled workers are shown in Table 8. Prepared from information in the NOC, the information in Table 8 has been designed to illustrate career paths and occupational mobility.
• Gaining the skills "to get where you want to be" involves using the four A's (and maybe a little bit of being in the right place at the right time). Worker need to be Aware of what motivates them in almost everything they do and of the skills and qualities that support that drive/passion and of the direction they want to move. Workers have to be on the Alert for gaps, openings and opportunities in the work place or the industry and how they can take advantage of them. Planning for, and taking Action can involve researching how individual workers learn best, what resources they have, what methods of training are available and then, actually carrying out the plan. And finally, workers need to know who to sell themselves to with Assertion, using the network of supporters, colleagues and acquaintances developed (such a network can take some of the coincidence out of being in the right place at the right time).